This weekend saw the respective returns of the Top 14 in France and the NFL in America as well as tier three down of what is termed as ‘community’ rugby union in England.
Together, those events caused one to wonder about the future of a 10-team Premiership and how the competition must pack a considerable punch – and enjoy a stroke of luck – to hold attention.
To be as clear as possible, the Premiership spoiled us last season with a gloriously chaotic and highly competitive campaign. Northampton Saints were worthy champions and the subplots were plentiful.
One of them, which will stretch into this term, was the Saracens squad revamp. The man overseeing the project is Mark McCall, who offered his thoughts to the BBC’s Rugby Union Weekly podcast in May, on the verge of the 2023-24 semi-finals.
Asked whether he was in favour of a 10-team league, McCall paused. Though appreciative of the advantages – greater availability of Test stars, a concentration of talent and other aspects – his overall outlook was that “time will tell”.
Such comments came to mind this weekend, as the Top 14 relaunched and put the Premiership, containing four fewer clubs, into perspective. Even across the Channel, it has felt like a significant event.
Partly, this is because of a summer migration. You could pick a decent team of (mostly) England-qualified players to have started in round one of the Top 14. Here is my stab:
15 Joe Simmonds (Pau)
14 Henry Arundell (Racing 92)
13 Joe Marchant (Stade Français)
12 Sam James (Racing 92)
11 Ali Crossdale (Perpignan)
10 Owen Farrell (Racing 92)
9 Dan Robson (Pau)
1 Mako Vunipola (Vannes)
2 Sam Matavesi (Lyon)*
3 Will Collier (Castres)
4 David Ribbans (Toulon)
5 Junior Kpoku (Racing 92)
6 Lewis Ludlam (Toulon)
7 Jack Willis (Toulouse)
8 Billy Vunipola (Montpellier)
Now, there is one obvious hitch at hooker. Curtis Langdon traded Montpellier for Saints a year ago and Luke Cowan-Dickie’s move to France broke down. As such, I have picked Matavesi, the Truro-born Fiji international.
Kpoku, a world champion with England U20, actually wore six on Saturday as well and Joe Simmonds was at fly-half rather than full-back for Pau against Clermont. Otherwise, it is a legitimate exercise. There were even amusingly familiar selection quandaries.
I opted for a set-piece specialist over Kyle Sinckler, who has voiced his intention to improve as a scrummager during his stint at Toulon. Manu Tuilagi, now of Bayonne, is injured, which leaves a rather lightweight midfield. As an aside, how odd it is that Billy Vunipola and Sam Simmonds are competing for the same spot again, this time at Montpellier.
Realistically, only six members of the line-up above – Arundell, Marchant, Farrell, Collier, Ribbans and Willis – would have been competing for a spot in Steve Borthwick’s touring party this summer. But the scale of the exodus has become jarring.
You also have Courtney Lawes and Jonny May, two members of the England side that faced South Africa in last year’s World Cup semi-final, in Pro D2, with Brive and Angoulême, respectively. Cynics will point out that the combined age of those two is 69. Still, there does appear to have been a tangible increase in awareness of the French landscape.
Premier Sports is broadcasting up to four Top 14 matches each weekend this season. UK newspapers, including The Telegraph, sent reporters to Castres for Farrell’s Racing 92 debut. There was also coverage of newly-promoted Vannes, who despite losing to title-holders Toulouse, saw their first Top 14 try scored through Mako Vunipola.
The intrigue is about more than just England stars in exile. The diversity and depth of the French club scene has an unmistakable allure. By contrast, financial fragility has caused the Premiership to constrict. Now, it is consolidating carefully. One source cited the six-year contract signed by Baptiste Couilloud, the Lyon scrum-half, as something that would not happen in England at the moment because of continual changes to the salary cap rules and competition infrastructure.
To herald the new NFL season, which arrived last Thursday, Sky Sports has been pumping out adverts promoting its three live matches each Sunday. My senses were heightened from bingeing Receiver, the Netflix documentary blending behind-the-scenes footage with nuggets of technical insight. American football represents a rival to lure attention and eyeballs away from rugby union.
The 2024-25 Premiership campaign begins a week on Friday. Bath host Northampton on opening night in a repeat of June’s decider. Having strengthened their squad and retained several big names, they should make a strong tilt at the title provided Finn Russell stays fit. Saints and Sale Sharks look best equipped to stop them at this stage. Bristol Bears, Exeter Chiefs, Saracens and Harlequins will vie to be part of the chasing pack.
In truth, the ceiling should take care of itself. My hope for the Premiership season is that the floor rises. Steve Diamond is aiming to revive Newcastle Falcons with five or six wins. Gloucester have signed new half-backs, Tomos Williams and Gareth Anscombe, in a bid to get their act together. Leicester Tigers finished eighth last season. Michael Cheika can spur a talented squad towards the top four.
Below that, though, comes the crux, because English rugby union can surely cultivate more than 10 teams capable of surviving in the top flight. On the face of it, promotion from the Championship is a more genuine prospect thanks to tweaked minimum standards criteria that allow a team to come up and work from a 5,000-capacity ground to a target of 10,000 over four seasons.
At the professional game partnership agreement (PGP) announcement last week, powerbrokers acknowledged the importance of a sturdy second tier. It was, however, reinforced that the gap is still “massive” as far as commercial clout. Despite myriad meetings over the past 18 months, questions remain over promotion mechanisms. Will a team need planning permission for the whole 10,000 seats immediately, for instance?
There is also debate over parachute payments for teams coming down. A Championship salary cap has been proposed to mitigate the likelihood of clubs yo-yoing. It has been met with resistance.
Another personal desire would be that whoever finishes top of the Championship – Ealing Trailfinders, Coventry, Doncaster Knights or another contender – has a crack at the two-legged play-off. Ealing beat a Russell-less Bath in a pre-season friendly on Saturday and will be buoyant. A high-stakes shoot-out is certain to add serious drama while widening the reach of the Premiership beyond 10 ringfenced teams.
Think of Shane Drahm’s predicament in 2005, when the Northampton fly-half could have consigned Worcester, the team he was joining the following summer, to relegation on the last day. Remember Guy Thompson’s phenomenal performance to beat Newcastle and inspire Leicester to survival in 2019? These were captivating storylines.
On Saturday, down in Hampshire, Havant marked their first game in the fourth tier since 2009 by overturning Sevenoaks 25-15. Rotherham, back in National 1, beat Rosslyn Park. Though it may not compare with France, the sport’s footprint in this country is noteworthy.
McCall’s implication in May was that the Premiership may eventually need to grow again, which would have obvious benefits: providing more playing opportunities, varying the fixture list, attracting broadcasters and filling schedule gaps that are tricky for cash flow. Besides anything else, it does seem silly that eight clubs qualify for the Champions Cup.
Last season, it was fortunate that the play-off race maintained an element of jeopardy until round 18. With the Top 14 as a comparison, a 10-team Premiership requires compelling mayhem on the pitch and canny marketing off it to make up for its diminished size.
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