A “bowl dry” strategy served Australia’s men well during their last Ashes in England and, but for Tim Paine’s lamentable decision to ask the hosts to bat first in the Oval finale, it may well have resulted in their first series win on these shores since 2001.
There is an acceptance things will be different this time around, however, as the tourists swiftly park their delight at victory in the World Test Championship final on Sunday and turn attentions to Friday, day one of the first Ashes Test at Edgbaston, and an England side that bats like the clappers.
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Over the past two years Australia’s bowling attack has conceded 2.9 runs per over, a figure in line with the 2019 Ashes campaign when Mitchell Starc – an attacking but profligate left-armer – was forced to wait until the fourth Test at Old Trafford and the control of Peter Siddle and James Pattinson largely preferred by the management.
But against India at the Oval, where the sun beat down and the outfield was lightning fast, they went at 3.97 runs per over – Starc’s personal economy rate was 5.3 – and may well see this rise further in the coming weeks; under Ben Stokes, England have scored at 4.85 runs per over, a figure unrivalled in Test history and central to a run of 11 wins in 13 outings.
“Most of our bowlers went at above what they’d usually go and we’ve just got to get our heads around that the tempo will be slightly different [against England],” said Andrew McDonald, Australia’s head coach, after his side’s triumph at the Oval.
“Mitch went for a bit more than the others – he generally does – but they complement each other really well. His wicket-taking ability is second to none. We’ve got to weigh all that up. But it’s not a concern. We know what we’re in for in the summer is slightly higher run-rate and that’s because of the grounds and the surfaces.”
While McDonald was right to stress that a compact five-Test series that is due to end on 31 July means rotation is inevitable – and his side has been augmented in recent times by the emergence of a genuine all-rounder in Cameron Green – the makeup of Australia’s attack for Edgbaston will nevertheless be intriguing.
From the outside, with Pat Cummins the captain and Scott Boland the form bowler in the side and England’s nemesis 18 months ago, the final call appears a straight decision between Josh Hazlewood, who is expected to be fit after missing the WTC final with a side problem, or the more grooved Starc.
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By contrast, England must decide if Moeen Ali comes into the side after Jack Leach’s 11th-hour back injury ruled him out of the series. The alternative is to play four seamers and rely on Joe Root’s off-breaks for relief, with the ability of Stokes to overcome his longstanding knee injury and bowl another complicating factor here.
A week of hot weather in Birmingham makes an all-seam England attack less likely and means that one of Jimmy Anderson, Ollie Robinson, Stuart Broad and Mark Wood will have to make way. McDonald, noting Moeen’s two-year break from Test cricket, is sensing a possible vulnerability here.
McDonald said: “Mo hasn’t played a red-ball game for an extended period of time, no doubt he’ll be prepared, he’s had a couple of weeks’ notice. But Jack Leach really complemented that attack and his wicket-taking ability and the way Ben Stokes has used him has been a little more aggressive and has reaped some great rewards.
“It won’t be the same – they’ll have to operate fractionally differently – no doubt about that.”
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