Nothing is as constant as change in rugby union and interminable law changes irritate fans with good reason. But one particular refereeing directive, adopted with relatively little fanfare ahead of the recent autumn internationals, may have sparked a significant shift in how the sport will be played in 2025 and beyond.
Canvassing opinion from a range of sources in the elite men’s game, including coaches attached to Test teams in both hemispheres as well as others working in the Premiership, the United Rugby Championship and Japan’s leading domestic competition, there was broad agreement.
Each of them acknowledged that the crackdown on ‘escorting’ – the practice of teams protecting a catcher by blocking off opponents with retreating players – will continue to alter the game. Already, we have seen matches heavily influenced by referees calling for chasers to be given “access” to the ball. And, according to some of rugby union’s sharpest minds, these ripple effects will continue to spread.
In the coming months and years, they could lead to a rethink of the customary athletic profiles and desired traits in certain positions. Further law tweaks, which seem inevitable, may finally achieve the aim of inducing more fatigue in players – a goal that has had authorities pondering whether replacements should be reduced.
As ever, teams who adapt quickly and effectively will thrive, because the landscape is already changing.
Addressing an eye-sore and adding uncertainty
That teams had been permitted to coordinate a ‘glove’ or ‘bubble’ of retreating players around a catcher in the back field was ridiculous in itself. The tactic was an ugly, artificial construct of the elite game. Just like caterpillar rucks that take 10 seconds to form, they would be penalised by bemused referees at lower levels.
But they had become mightily effective. Take the opening seconds of the World Cup semi-final between England and South Africa, a tense tussle for territory in tricky weather conditions. Watch how Jamie George, Ben Earl, Joe Marchant, Alex Mitchell and Elliot Daly form a semi-circular barrier in front of Freddie Steward to block off Kurt-Lee Arendse:
This tactic artificially tilted the odds in favour of catchers and made kick-return into a solid platform. One source declared that kick-return situations consequently became “almost as prescribed as scrums or line-outs” as far as how ensuing phases could be mapped out and choreographed.
Even sides who crave structure have begun to devote a greater share of training time to broken-field ‘transition’ situations because, without escorting, one simply cannot be sure who will end up in possession from contestable kicks. There is a lot to be said for a team simply getting the ball to their fastest players as quickly as possible.
Union Bordeaux-Bègles do this brilliantly. Here, against Leicester Tigers, they set up a foot race for Louis Bielle-Biarrey after Hanro Liebenberg spills Freddie Steward’s pass. Jefferson Poirot offloads to Damian Penaud, who grubbers in the knowledge that Bielle-Biarrey is likely to outpace any scrambling defenders:
More tap-backs from high kicks – and another source predicted that taller wings would become increasingly fashionable – will bring about more unstructured scenarios.
“It will be interesting to see if kick-chase lines start to hedge their bets,” said one head coach. “They could have some chasers nearest the landing zone setting for defence mode, with the other half or so of the team setting for counter-attack shape.
“Previously, almost everyone was thinking about the defensive-chase line and backfield coverage only [from kicks]. It’s generally quite hard [for a catching team] to play immediately to width off a contestable receipt so you could get away with it.”
Conventional kick-chases have looked like this (with the “landing zone” represented by the dotted circle):
A kicking team hedging their bets on recovering possession might coordinate a chase of the same kick like this, with players offering greater depth and width to capitalise on a tap-back:
There are two sides to every coin of course. One backs coach hopes that a clean catch, albeit harder to accomplish, will yield more-dangerous attacking opportunities. This is partly because they are urging retreating players to circle around the catcher and blast into the next breakdown. It is important to note that the kicking teams will be compromised as well, with ‘blockers’ outlawed.
Decline of the caterpillar and more speed
Penalties for blocking chasers may encourage more kicking. There already appears to have been an increase in the number of short restarts. Outlawing blockers for box-kicks is a positive step. Again, it was jarring that teams were allowed to post a player who was detached from the ruck in front of the ball in order to shield their scrum-half.
The consensus is that scrum-halves will have to execute box-kicks under greater pressure. Separate sources, one from the world of officiating, anticipate that teams will have to use the ball within three seconds rather than the current limit of five seconds once it becomes available.
“This should take away the time required to form the caterpillar ruck and reduce protection for the No 9 kicking from the ruck,” said a leading defence coach.
“The knock-on effects are that scrum-halves will have to kick more dynamically – and possibly less accurately. There will be more kicking from 10 and, as a result, more unstructured scenarios for attack and defence coaches to train.”
In the 2024 Rugby Championship, as part of a trial, defenders involved in rucks, scrums and mauls were not allowed to tackle scrum-halves emerging with the ball. This will be rolled out for all competitions that start after January 1 and the same source suggested that running scrum-halves could become more effective as a result.
Nolann le Garrec, a 22-year-old France live-wire, belongs in that category. Watch how Racing 92 send him scampering on a loop move in their recent loss to Sale Sharks:
Roaming wings such as Cheslin Kolbe, Darcy Graham and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, who like to pick and go around breakdowns, will enjoy extra breathing space as well. Meanwhile, the advent of three-second countdowns (as opposed to five seconds) at rucks is bound to induce fatigue and more open matches.
A question of philosophy
One head coach is expecting a rise in picking, going and offloading – the approach associated with France and Toulouse – as a way to challenge modern defences. With the breakdown described as a “war zone for attacking teams” with defenders “piling in”, there are larger pockets of space to exploit. The counterpoint is that defences are backing their line speed to shut down the attack before they can move the ball there.
“Attacking teams have a really interesting philosophical decision to make,” said a source. “Do they play less rugby ball in hand because of the breakdown threat, and do we end up with a game similar to several years back of anti-possession? Or do they favour the bravery of taking that breakdown threat head-on with the lure of the greater attacking space to move the ball to?”
There will always be a need for innovation in phase attack. The hidden inside ball, used by Ireland to score two tries against the Springboks in July…
…has become a trendy accessory. Watch how Duhan van der Merwe sweeps in front of Rory Sutherland (17) to take a pass from Zander Fagerson and burst through Australia’s defensive line in the build-up to a try for Finn Russell:
Leicester Tigers unfurled a similar play a few weeks later, Jamie Shillcock lifting the ball for Liebenberg, who appears in front of a loitering Ollie Hassell-Collins:
Tap penalties continue to evolve as well. Bristol Bears effectively set up a phase shape here against Harlequins, with AJ MacGinty launching Bill Mata from Fitz Harding’s pull-back:
Two other incoming global law trials for competitions in 2025, beginning with the Six Nations, are 30-second limits for setting up line-outs and referees allowing play to continue when throws are not straight – provided that the defending team does not contest the jump.
“I can see a bit more tempo in attack, with teams walking in and going straight up,” said a source. “And I think defensive teams will put everything into the maul as a result, so we might see more trick plays, especially peels and shifts.”
The vast majority of peel plays see an attacking team arc to the openside. Sale Sharks manufactured a clever blindside break last Friday…
…and Saracens followed suit with something similar less than 24 hours later:
Four-man line-outs, used by New Zealand to unpick Ireland in the World Cup quarter-final…
…have become widespread and over-the-top throws are popular as well.
Siya Kolisi admitted that the Springboks were baffled when this funky shift-drive was initially proposed by Rassie Erasmus:
South Africa continually prove to be open-minded tactically. As one source put it, they have the ability to challenge the norm and foresee – and then exploit – unintended consequences more than anyone. Asked about the escorting directive in November, prior to his team facing England, attack coach Tony Brown predicted the game would become “more dynamic”.
Steve Borthwick, meanwhile, voiced concerns about how rugby union could turn into Australian rules football. Despite not being able to put blockers in place, England kept faith in box-kicking and Eben Etzebeth capitalised with two charge-downs, the first leading to a try for Pieter-Steph du Toit:
Saracens, typically sharp on kicking strategy, are exploring ways to protect their scrum-halves from charge-downs. Watch Maro Itoje turn himself on the floor here to elongate the ruck. Northampton Saints’ defenders are ushered further back by referee Adam Leal and Ivan van Zyl can hoist a high ball under minimal pressure:
What is clear, as one source stated, is that these recent and upcoming law changes will “challenge formulaic rugby”. Though they did struggle to adapt in November, it is perhaps unfair to condemn England too forcefully as rigid thinkers.
Their use of Ben Earl as a stand-in centre has been inventive and this strike move saw the Saracen circle around from the receiver position into midfield before taking a pull-back from Ollie Lawrence and playing a pass behind Marcus Smith to Fin Smith:
Next year, the men’s game will see a British and Irish Lions tour as well as a captivating Test involving the Springboks travelling to Eden Park in an attempt to break the All Blacks’ unbeaten run at that venue.
The tactical trends on show are bound to give us a glimpse into the future as well.
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