At the fall of their seventh wicket a few minutes before lunch on day two, Pakistan had 177 runs, and were still 90 behind England.
But thanks to two contrasting partnerships for the eighth (88 from 151) and ninth (72 from 78) wickets, they chiselled out parity at tea then charged into a lead of 77 that by stumps looked match-defining. All out for 344, they had almost doubled their score with their last three wickets.
Alas, this is not a new problem for England. They have reinvented much of what they do under Ben Stokes, and are very good at prising out wickets in imaginative ways.
But they have a problem with cutting off the tail. Think back to Jasprit Bumrah taking Stuart Broad for 35, the most expensive over in Test history, at Edgbaston in 2022; or Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon taking Australia to victory at the same venue a year later; or the match-defining lower-order runs Dhruv Jurel marshalled in the defeat at Ranchi this February.
The stats bear it out. Under Stokes, England have conceded 19 partnerships of 50 or more for the last three wickets (12 for the eighth, five for the ninth, two for the 10th).
Their average against all three partnerships is higher than the global average. Against England, the eighth wicket makes on average 27, with the global average being 23. Against England, the ninth wicket makes on average 19, with the global average being 16. Against England, the 10th wicket makes on average 13, the same as the global average. By comparison Australia’s equivalent numbers are 23, 11, and 16 (so they struggle to break the last wicket). For India, it’s 25, 14 and eight.
Even in this series, Pakistan have made more than 400 runs from the seventh wicket down, at an average of 34, with four stands of more than 50. With the bat, England’s tail has not contributed a fifty stand.
Here is the anatomy of England’s latest tail-end trouble. This was not a case of the wheels coming off through a series of ripped chances – although a couple of half-chances went begging on day two – more death by a thousand cuts.
Curious bowling changes
Rehan Ahmed had been on a roll before lunch, and appeared to have turned the decider England’s way by prising out three right-handers, Mohammad Rizwan, the obdurate Salman Ali Agha and Aamer Jamal. In the final over before the break, No 9 Noman Ali launched him down the ground for a sweetly struck four.
Normally, this is the sort of moment that Ben Stokes sticks his poker face on for, clapping his hands and applauding his bowler for giving the ball some flight. Instead, Stokes appeared concerned by Nolan’s ability to pick Ahmed’s variations and the fact that there were now two left-handers at the crease. So instead of Ahmed, he turned to Shoaib Bashir and Gus Atkinson. Both men had bowled well, but do not possess the unpredictability of a confident young wrist-spinner. Ahmed was not seen for another eight overs, when he swapped ends, losing his rhythm.
It was curious, too, that Stokes did not bowl a single over. There was no reverse swing (Stokes’s super strength) on offer for Atkinson, but unless he remains unable to bowl at full tilt, there was surely no reason not to see if the captain could summon one of the golden arm moments that he is famous for.
Unimaginative field settings
If there was a strange lack of invention to the bowling choices, the field placings were unusually passive, by Stokes’s standards. He was happy to gift Pakistan singles with in-out fields and rarely had many men round the bat. There was a brief flirtation with the high risk/high reward bouncer tactic that Stokes so loves against the tail, but nothing more experimental than that. A lack of bounce meant it was shelved quickly.
Until Sajid Khan came in and teed off against Bashir, these defensive tactics succeeded in drying up boundaries, but the scoreboard kept ticking thanks to singles, especially as Bashir and Jack Leach tired. It was as if England believed the pitch would do the work for them, but Pakistan’s batsmen were too canny for that.
A stubborn opponent
In Saud Shakeel, who made a fantastic century, Pakistan had the perfect man for this situation. He did everything right, batting with a total lack of ego that must have been frustrating to bowl at, and confusing for England’s batsmen to watch.
Even when set, he went 108 balls without scoring a boundary, and hit just five in his 223-ball innings. He accepted singles, making 86 in all. A fantastic player of spin, he did not subscribe to England’s view that there was a “ball with his name on it”, instead trusting his defence. Best of all, he trusted his partners, which allowed Noman and Sajid to thrive.
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