The opening round of the Rugby Championship is finally set to take place this weekend with Australia travelling to Pretoria to face the Springboks whilst the All Blacks make the trip down to Argentina for the first time since 2019.
With the teams named and everything locked and loaded, Planet Rugby takes a look at the possible World Rugby rankings permutations for the four teams in round one.
Help from elsewhere can see Springboks climb
There is no scenario for this weekend that will see the Springboks improve on their 88.97 points tally even if they were to win by 15 points or more. This is because of the points difference between the sides and the home advantage. However, if the All Blacks lose to Argentina and the Springboks manage a win it will see the world champions climb from fourth to third-place in the rankings.
There is no permutation that sees the South Africans drop to fifth in the world due to their lead over the next-placed side. With that being said their points tally could take a significant hit if they are on the wrong end of the result this weekend. A draw will see their 88.97 total drop to 87.97, with a loss by less than 15 would take their tally down to 86.97, whilst a defeat by more than 15 points drops them all the way down to 85.97.
Fast fact: The Springboks are looking to emulate their success in the truncated 2019 Rugby Championship by splitting squads with some players having already travelled to New Zealand to prepare for next week’s Test.
More to gain than lose for Australia
The Wallabies, who will run out for the first time in the second stint of veteran Eddie Jones, will not see a change in their ranking or ranking points if they lose to the Springboks. There would still be no change if the losing margin is 15 points or more. The reason for this is the points difference between the countries as well as the home weighting factored in.
Now, on the flip side, Australia can jump two places if they manage a draw or better at Loftus Versfeld which will see them leapfrog Scotland and England in the rankings. A draw will see their points tally go from 81.80 to 82.80 whilst a win by 15 points or less will take them to 83.40 and by 15 points or more to 84.80.
Fast fact: The Wallabies have never won a Test at Loftus Versfeld in seven attempts dating back to 1963.
Argentina only looking up
Los Pumas are in a similar position to Australia, although a loss of any kind will see them drop points, despite it not being a significant amount. Michael Cheika’s side will be eyeing a famous win against New Zealand. If Argentina wins they will go ahead of England in the rankings, and if South Africa beats Australia, the South Americans will climb above their southern hemisphere compatriots as well. In any circumstance, if Argentina win by more than 15 points it would see them leapfrog Scotland as well as sit fifth in the world.
A win of any kind will see massive movement in their points tally. Victory by less than 15 takes their total from 80.72 to 82.24 and a win by 15 or more points sees them climb to 83.01. Even a draw sees an increase in points to 81.24.
Argentina holds a healthy 1.92 points lead on next-placed Wales meaning that not even a loss by more than 15 points can drop their ranking below eighth. There will be points changes, however, as a loss by less than 15 drops them to 80.24 and by more than 15 to 80.00.
Fast fact: A win for Los Pumas this weekend would be their first-ever victory over the All Blacks in Argentina.
It is level or down for the All Blacks
There is no possible way that the All Blacks will be able to contest the top two teams in the world even if they beat Argentina by more than 15 points. In that case, their points tally would go from 88.98 to 89.69, which is still short of Ireland and France whose points exceed 90. A win by less than 15 still gives the side a small bump, taking them to 89.45, whilst a draw drops them to 88.45.
A loss will see the side take a big hit in the rankings and could see them drop below the Springboks. A loss by less than 15 points results in a new points total of 87.45 and a loss by more than 15 points would be a significant blow for New Zealand who would end up on 86.45 points.
Fast fact: The All Blacks are travelling to Argentina for Test rugby for the first time since 2019, mainly due to disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
READ MORE: A combined Los Pumas and All Blacks XV ahead of the Mendoza Test
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